Power-to-Walk Ratio (PTW)

Power-to-Walk Ratio (PTW)

 Walks are generally thought of as a function of plate discipline – to get a walk you need to not swing at pitches out of the zone. If you are good at recognizing pitches and being disciplined to not swing at bad pitches you will get walks. Another factor is passivity – if you don’t much at all you’ll get more walks. This is the Adam Dunn approach. The problem with swinging is that you might make contact and put the ball in play – thus ruining your chance to walk.

 But there is another factor in walk rates – power. The threat of power can result in more walks.  If you get behind in the count against a guy 40-homer power you’re hardly going to groove a fastball over the plate. Yet if behind in the count against Ben Revere or Jamey Carroll I’m not going to nibble around the edges – I’m going to make them hit if they want to get on, since they can’t really hurt me with extra-base hits.

 To illustrate this idea let’s look at some examples from last year by playing around with Fangraphs leaderboards in 2012. According to Fangraphs 143 batters qualified for the batting title. Josh Hamilton, that man renowned for his swinging ways, walked in 9.4% of his plate appearances, enough to rank him 51/143. ‘The Greek God of Walks’, Kevin Youkilis, only ranked slightly ahead at 39^th (10.0% walk rate). Hamilton was way ahead of Adrian Gonzalez at 111^th (6.1%). Hamilton received walks because pitchers we’re being careful with him – if you put a fastball in his hitting zone it was likely going over the fence.

 Let’s have some fun with inventing a new metric to separate the power out of walk rate to see who has the real skill in drawing walks. Let’s use isolated slugging percentage – ISO – and compare it to BB%. ISO is (Extra Bases)/AB, BB% is walks/PA. Let’s call our little stat ‘Power-To-Walk Ratio’ (PTW). Let’s call it PTW(ISO) – which is ISO/BB%(being expressed as a decimal). But that’s including doubles and triples as well as homers. But maybe batters don’t fear doubles but do fear giving up the long ball – they fear the big monster more than guy with gap power. So let’s have another form of PTW – PTW(HR)  – which is HR%/BB%. With these numbers the lower the number the more the batter walks compared to their power – the less extra-bases or homers per walk.

 The average of all position players (non-pitchers) in MLB in 2012 for BB% is 8.1%, PTW(HR) is 0.338 and PTW(ISO) is 1.895. The full table for all 2012 batting title qualified players is at the bottom of this article.

 Now let us go back to 2012 and the 143 batting title qualifying batters.  Going back to Josh Hamilton (BB%: 9.4% (51^st/143) – his PTW(ISO)= 0.292/0.094= 3.106 (meaning he gets 3.106 extra bases per walk). That ranks him 122^nd/143 (pretty low). With PTW(HR) his value is 6.76/9.4=0.719 (he hits 0.719 homers per walk) – by this measurement he’s even closer to the bottom at 132^nd/143. This gels with what we know – Josh Hamilton has some of the worst plate discipline of anyone in the Majors but he needs to pitched carefully since he can do a lot of damage. Also you can pitch him outside and might get him to swing at outside pitches.

 What about another whiffer, Adam Dunn. He strikes out a bunch like Hamilton but for different reasons – not swinging that much and having trouble hitting it when he does swing. He actually had the highest BB% at 16.2% but ranks middle of the table (76) with a PTW(HR) of 0.390. But he’s 36^th in PTW(ISO) with 1.623 extra bases per walk. This is because he didn’t hit many doubles last year, and judging by his .204 batting average he didn’t hit many singles either.

 At the other end of the table the guy with the lowest walk rate, Alexei Ramirez, doesn’t fare much better in PTW, with ranks of 136^th (PTW(ISO)) and 116^th (PTW(HR)).

 The Best and Worst of PTW

 So who is the best walker – who shall be Mr Walker*, the master of the plate? Well not Neil Walker – he ranks 51^st in PTW(HR) and 40^th in PTW(ISO). Our king of power-to-walk is Jamey Carroll – a man who walks way more than he should considering his power output. He ranks 1^st out of all 143 qualified batters in PTW(ISO) with a score 0.505 extra bases per walk – he has almost twice as many walks as extra bases. He ranks 2^nd in PTW(HR) with .019 homers per walk (he hit 1 homer in 537 plate appearances).
 The only reason he’s 2^nd in PTW(HR) is because Ben Revere hit 0 homers and thus gets a PTW(HR) of zero. Jamey Carroll had an OBP bigger than his SLG (0.343 OBP, 0.317 SLG). Which is not what we are used to seeing. He’s the only guy who has this, although some of our other PTW leaders come close. Jamey Carroll, along with many of the PTW leaders, achieves such a good score due to a severe lack of power rather than insanely high walk rates. Carroll only ranks 48^th in walk rate and Ben Revere was all the way down at 130^th.

  Here we see a limitation (probably one of many) with this PTW stat. In seems to be biased to low power guys. These guys slap at the ball so have decent contact rates and even if they inspire little fear in pitchers they still get walks. Even major league pitchers have trouble throwing a ball at high speeds at a small target – they will miss sometimes. And it’s not like they can lob in a 60mph fastball down the middle – even the weakest MLB players can jack the ball in batting practice (i.e. Jamey Carroll has no power but could whip me in an arm-wrestling match no trouble).

 Looking at the best PTW guys there is one guy who also has a very high walk rate – Joe Mauer. 6^th in PTW(HR), 3^rd in PTW(ISO) and he’s 6^th in BB% as well. This means he really does walk a lot and his high PTW is not due to a lack of power.

 In terms of worst PTW of 2012 we have a few candidates. Adrian Beltre  (5.5BB%, 120th) is last in PTW(HR) with 1.001 – he hit 36 HR and walked 36 times. He’s also 140^th/143 in PTW(ISO) with 4.364. Alex Rios is last in PTW(ISO) – 5.171 extra bases per walk. He’s 141^st in PTW(HR) with 0.953.

 Interestingly some of the other bad PTW guys are, like Rios, White Sox players – Pierzynski is 142^nd/143 in PTW(HR) and 139^th/143 in PTW(ISO) and Dayan Viciedo is 136^th and 133^rd. But at the other end the Twins have several good guys – along with Mauer, Carroll and Revere (who’s now in Philly) and Denard Span (now in Washington) all in the top 6 of PTW(HR).

 A few final points about Power-To-Walk ratio:

- What about intentional walks? Obviously no.8 NL hitters getting walked has little to do with fear of power but there is something to IBB and fear – as an extreme example looking at the Barry Bonds insane years those intentionally free passes were certainly due to fear of his power.

- Logically there might be some lag with PTW, especially in situations where guys have breakout power seasons. They might not get walked much in the year they flash power but then later on their reputation will catch up with them. It should also happen with older guys whose power disappears – if you’ve hit 400 homers in your career you’ll still be perceived as a power threat even if nowadays you struggle to get to 15 homers.

- Is there a linear relationship between walk rate and ISO or HR%? PTW does seem to be biased towards no-power guys – Ben Revere has an unbeatable score in PTW(HR) since he gets 0 HR. Could we maybe come up with an expected PTW – how much walks would we expect for a certain HR% or ISO?

- PTW, while a little bit interesting, is more useful as a tool to show us that walk rates are not a perfect indicator of plate patience or discipline. Statistics like swing rates at pitches outside the zone (O-Swing%) and total swing rates are probably a better way to determine if someone has good plate discipline and pitch identification tools.

  

• MLB 2012 Batting Title Qualified Batters:

									Ranks
Name	PA	HR	OPS	ISO	HR%	BB%	PTW(HR)	PTW(ISO)	BB%	PTW(HR)	PTW(ISO)
Ben Revere	553	0	0.675	0.049	0.00%	5.20%	0.000	0.942	130	1	4
Jamey Carroll	537	1	0.660	0.049	0.19%	9.70%	0.019	0.505	48	2	1
Jemile Weeks	511	2	0.609	0.083	0.39%	9.80%	0.040	0.847	45	3	2
Elvis Andrus	711	3	0.727	0.092	0.42%	8.00%	0.053	1.150	85	4	12
Denard Span	568	4	0.738	0.112	0.70%	8.30%	0.085	1.349	72	5	21
Joe Mauer	641	10	0.861	0.127	1.56%	14.00%	0.111	0.907	6	6	3
Michael Brantley	609	6	0.750	0.114	0.99%	8.70%	0.113	1.310	66	7	19
Rafael Furcal	531	5	0.671	0.082	0.94%	8.30%	0.113	0.988	71	8	5
Michael Bourn	703	9	0.739	0.117	1.28%	10.00%	0.128	1.170	43	9	14
Yonder Alonso	619	9	0.741	0.120	1.45%	10.00%	0.145	1.200	42	10	16
David DeJesus	582	9	0.753	0.140	1.55%	10.50%	0.147	1.333	27	11	20
Carlos Lee	615	9	0.697	0.102	1.46%	9.40%	0.156	1.085	55	12	8
Daniel Murphy	612	6	0.735	0.112	0.98%	5.90%	0.166	1.898	116	13	61
Angel Pagan	659	8	0.778	0.152	1.21%	7.30%	0.166	2.082	95	14	71
Martin Prado	690	10	0.796	0.136	1.45%	8.40%	0.173	1.619	70	15	36
Marco Scutaro	683	7	0.753	0.098	1.02%	5.90%	0.174	1.661	115	16	44
Jose Reyes	716	11	0.780	0.146	1.54%	8.80%	0.175	1.659	65	17	43
Jose Altuve	630	7	0.740	0.109	1.11%	6.30%	0.176	1.730	108	18	49
Alberto Callaspo	520	10	0.692	0.109	1.92%	10.80%	0.178	1.009	22	19	6
Cameron Maybin	561	8	0.656	0.107	1.43%	7.80%	0.183	1.372	89	20	24
Alcides Escobar	648	5	0.721	0.098	0.77%	4.20%	0.184	2.333	137	21	93
Dexter Fowler	530	13	0.863	0.174	2.45%	12.80%	0.192	1.359	10	22	23
Alex Gordon	721	14	0.822	0.160	1.94%	10.10%	0.192	1.584	37	23	33
Alejandro De Aza	585	9	0.760	0.130	1.54%	8.00%	0.192	1.625	84	24	38
Carlos Santana	609	18	0.785	0.168	2.96%	14.90%	0.198	1.128	3	25	11
A.J. Ellis	505	13	0.786	0.144	2.57%	12.90%	0.200	1.116	9	26	10
Dan Uggla	630	19	0.732	0.164	3.02%	14.90%	0.202	1.101	2	27	9
Dustin Ackley	668	12	0.622	0.102	1.80%	8.80%	0.204	1.159	64	28	13
Miguel Montero	573	15	0.829	0.152	2.62%	12.70%	0.206	1.197	11	29	15
Shane Victorino	666	11	0.704	0.128	1.65%	8.00%	0.206	1.600	83	30	35
Ben Zobrist	668	20	0.848	0.202	2.99%	14.50%	0.206	1.393	5	31	25
Jason Kipnis	672	14	0.714	0.122	2.08%	10.00%	0.208	1.220	41	32	17
Darwin Barney	588	7	0.653	0.100	1.19%	5.60%	0.213	1.786	119	33	54
Carlos Pena	600	19	0.684	0.157	3.17%	14.50%	0.218	1.083	4	34	7
Shin-Soo Choo	686	16	0.815	0.159	2.33%	10.60%	0.220	1.500	24	35	27
Jordan Pacheco	505	5	0.762	0.112	0.99%	4.40%	0.225	2.545	135	36	102
Norichika Aoki	588	10	0.787	0.144	1.70%	7.30%	0.233	1.973	94	37	63
Austin Jackson	617	16	0.856	0.179	2.59%	10.90%	0.238	1.642	21	38	41
Michael Young	651	8	0.682	0.093	1.23%	5.10%	0.241	1.824	131	39	56
Coco Crisp	508	11	0.742	0.158	2.17%	8.90%	0.243	1.775	62	40	53
Eric Hosmer	598	14	0.663	0.127	2.34%	9.40%	0.249	1.351	54	41	22
Yunel Escobar	608	9	0.644	0.091	1.48%	5.80%	0.255	1.569	117	42	32
Kelly Johnson	581	16	0.678	0.140	2.75%	10.70%	0.257	1.308	23	43	18
David Wright	670	21	0.883	0.186	3.13%	12.10%	0.259	1.537	16	44	29
Jhonny Peralta	585	13	0.689	0.145	2.22%	8.40%	0.265	1.726	69	45	48
Justin Upton	628	17	0.785	0.150	2.71%	10.00%	0.271	1.500	40	46	26
Howie Kendrick	594	8	0.725	0.113	1.35%	4.90%	0.275	2.306	133	47	91
David Murphy	521	15	0.859	0.175	2.88%	10.40%	0.277	1.683	31	48	45
Des Jennings	563	13	0.702	0.143	2.31%	8.20%	0.282	1.744	75	49	51
Rickie Weeks	677	21	0.728	0.170	3.10%	10.90%	0.285	1.560	20	50	31
Neil Walker	530	14	0.768	0.146	2.64%	8.90%	0.297	1.640	61	51	40
Asdrubal Cabrera	616	16	0.762	0.153	2.60%	8.40%	0.309	1.821	68	52	55
Dustin Pedroia	623	15	0.797	0.160	2.41%	7.70%	0.313	2.078	91	53	70
Nick Swisher	624	24	0.837	0.201	3.85%	12.30%	0.313	1.634	15	54	39
Mark Reynolds	538	23	0.763	0.208	4.28%	13.60%	0.314	1.529	7	55	28
Ian Kinsler	731	19	0.749	0.166	2.60%	8.20%	0.317	2.024	74	56	69
Brett Lawrie	536	11	0.729	0.132	2.05%	6.20%	0.331	2.129	109	57	74
Derek Jeter	740	15	0.791	0.113	2.03%	6.10%	0.332	1.852	112	58	58
Paul Goldschmidt	587	20	0.850	0.204	3.41%	10.20%	0.334	2.000	34	59	67
Drew Stubbs	544	14	0.610	0.120	2.57%	7.70%	0.334	1.558	90	60	30
Buster Posey	610	24	0.957	0.213	3.93%	11.30%	0.348	1.885	17	61	60
David Freese	567	20	0.839	0.174	3.53%	10.10%	0.349	1.723	36	62	46
Prince Fielder	690	30	0.940	0.215	4.35%	12.30%	0.353	1.748	14	63	52
Alex Rodriguez	529	18	0.783	0.158	3.40%	9.60%	0.354	1.646	49	64	42
Matt Holliday	688	27	0.877	0.202	3.92%	10.90%	0.360	1.853	19	65	59
Freddie Freeman	620	23	0.796	0.196	3.71%	10.30%	0.360	1.903	33	66	62
Chase Headley	699	31	0.875	0.212	4.43%	12.30%	0.361	1.724	13	67	47
Erick Aybar	554	8	0.740	0.126	1.44%	4.00%	0.361	3.150	139	68	124
Danny Espinosa	658	17	0.717	0.155	2.58%	7.00%	0.369	2.214	102	69	84
Jimmy Rollins	699	23	0.743	0.177	3.29%	8.90%	0.370	1.989	60	70	65
Kevin Youkilis	509	19	0.745	0.174	3.73%	10.00%	0.373	1.740	39	71	50
Matt Wieters	593	23	0.764	0.186	3.88%	10.10%	0.384	1.842	35	72	57
Justin Smoak	535	19	0.654	0.147	3.55%	9.20%	0.386	1.598	57	73	34
Justin Morneau	570	19	0.773	0.172	3.33%	8.60%	0.388	2.000	67	74	68
Starlin Castro	691	14	0.753	0.147	2.03%	5.20%	0.390	2.827	129	75	113
Adam Dunn	649	41	0.800	0.263	6.32%	16.20%	0.390	1.623	1	76	37
Carlos Gonzalez	579	22	0.881	0.207	3.80%	9.70%	0.392	2.134	47	77	76
Bryce Harper	597	22	0.817	0.206	3.69%	9.40%	0.392	2.191	53	78	82
Gordon Beckham	582	16	0.668	0.137	2.75%	6.90%	0.398	1.986	103	79	64
Andre Ethier	618	20	0.812	0.176	3.24%	8.10%	0.400	2.173	78	80	79
Ichiro Suzuki	663	9	0.696	0.107	1.36%	3.30%	0.411	3.242	142	81	125
Torii Hunter	584	16	0.817	0.139	2.74%	6.50%	0.421	2.138	105	82	77
Hunter Pence	688	24	0.743	0.172	3.49%	8.10%	0.431	2.123	77	83	72
Adrian Gonzalez	684	18	0.806	0.164	2.63%	6.10%	0.431	2.689	111	84	109
Kyle Seager	651	20	0.738	0.163	3.07%	7.10%	0.433	2.296	100	85	89
Ryan Zimmerman	641	25	0.824	0.196	3.90%	8.90%	0.438	2.202	59	86	83
Michael Saunders	553	19	0.738	0.185	3.44%	7.80%	0.440	2.372	88	87	97
A. McCutchen	673	31	0.953	0.226	4.61%	10.40%	0.443	2.173	30	88	80
Hanley Ramirez	667	24	0.759	0.180	3.60%	8.10%	0.444	2.222	76	89	85
Mark Teixeira	524	24	0.807	0.224	4.58%	10.30%	0.445	2.175	32	90	81
Mike Trout	639	30	0.963	0.238	4.69%	10.50%	0.447	2.267	26	91	87
Brennan Boesch	503	12	0.659	0.132	2.39%	5.20%	0.459	2.538	128	92	101
Josh Willingham	615	35	0.890	0.264	5.69%	12.40%	0.459	2.129	12	93	73
Paul Konerko	598	26	0.857	0.188	4.35%	9.40%	0.463	2.000	52	94	66
Jason Heyward	651	27	0.814	0.210	4.15%	8.90%	0.466	2.360	58	95	94
Jeff Francoeur	603	16	0.665	0.143	2.65%	5.60%	0.474	2.554	118	96	103
Zack Cozart	600	15	0.687	0.153	2.50%	5.20%	0.481	2.942	127	97	118
Chris Johnson	528	15	0.777	0.170	2.84%	5.90%	0.482	2.881	114	98	115
Yadier Molina	563	22	0.874	0.186	3.91%	8.00%	0.488	2.325	82	99	92
Adam LaRoche	647	33	0.853	0.238	5.10%	10.40%	0.490	2.288	29	100	88
Colby Rasmus	625	23	0.689	0.177	3.68%	7.50%	0.491	2.360	93	101	95
Carlos Beltran	619	32	0.842	0.227	5.17%	10.50%	0.492	2.162	25	102	78
Nelson Cruz	642	24	0.779	0.200	3.74%	7.50%	0.498	2.667	92	103	104
Aaron Hill	668	26	0.882	0.220	3.89%	7.80%	0.499	2.821	87	104	112
E. Encarnacion	644	42	0.941	0.277	6.52%	13.00%	0.502	2.131	8	105	75
Mike Moustakas	614	20	0.708	0.171	3.26%	6.40%	0.509	2.672	107	106	105
Cody Ross	528	22	0.807	0.214	4.17%	8.00%	0.521	2.675	81	107	107
Jesus Montero	553	15	0.685	0.126	2.71%	5.20%	0.522	2.423	126	108	98
Jason Kubel	571	30	0.833	0.253	5.25%	10.00%	0.525	2.530	38	109	100
Ike Davis	584	32	0.771	0.235	5.48%	10.40%	0.527	2.260	28	110	86
Pedro Alvarez	586	30	0.784	0.223	5.12%	9.70%	0.528	2.299	46	111	90
Yoenis Cespedes	540	23	0.861	0.214	4.26%	8.00%	0.532	2.675	80	112	106
Billy Butler	679	29	0.882	0.197	4.27%	8.00%	0.534	2.463	79	113	99
Robinson Cano	697	33	0.929	0.238	4.73%	8.80%	0.538	2.705	63	114	111
Jay Bruce	633	34	0.841	0.263	5.37%	9.80%	0.548	2.684	44	115	108
Alexei Ramirez	621	9	0.651	0.099	1.45%	2.60%	0.557	3.808	143	116	136
Mike Aviles	546	13	0.663	0.131	2.38%	4.20%	0.567	3.119	136	117	123
Omar Infante	588	12	0.719	0.144	2.04%	3.60%	0.567	4.000	140	118	138
Curtis Granderson	684	43	0.811	0.260	6.29%	11.00%	0.572	2.364	18	119	96
Albert Pujols	670	30	0.859	0.231	4.48%	7.80%	0.574	2.962	86	120	119
Josh Reddick	673	32	0.768	0.221	4.75%	8.20%	0.580	2.695	73	121	110
J.J. Hardy	713	22	0.671	0.151	3.09%	5.30%	0.582	2.849	124	122	114
Allen Craig	514	22	0.876	0.215	4.28%	7.20%	0.594	2.986	97	123	121
Aramis Ramirez	630	27	0.901	0.240	4.29%	7.00%	0.612	3.429	101	124	131
Ryan Doumit	528	18	0.781	0.186	3.41%	5.50%	0.620	3.382	122	125	130
B.J. Upton	633	28	0.752	0.208	4.42%	7.10%	0.623	2.930	99	126	117
Brandon Phillips	623	18	0.750	0.148	2.89%	4.50%	0.642	3.289	134	127	127
Ryan Braun	677	41	0.987	0.276	6.06%	9.30%	0.651	2.968	56	128	120
Miguel Cabrera	697	44	0.999	0.277	6.31%	9.50%	0.665	2.916	50	129	116
Corey Hart	622	30	0.841	0.237	4.82%	7.10%	0.679	3.338	98	130	129
Kendrys Morales	522	22	0.787	0.194	4.21%	5.90%	0.714	3.288	113	131	126
Josh Hamilton	636	43	0.930	0.292	6.76%	9.40%	0.719	3.106	51	132	122
Alfonso Soriano	615	32	0.821	0.237	5.20%	7.20%	0.723	3.292	96	133	128
Garrett Jones	515	27	0.832	0.242	5.24%	6.40%	0.819	3.781	106	134	135
Ian Desmond	547	25	0.845	0.218	4.57%	5.50%	0.831	3.964	121	135	137
Dayan Viciedo	543	25	0.744	0.188	4.60%	5.20%	0.885	3.615	125	136	133
Chris Davis	562	33	0.827	0.231	5.87%	6.60%	0.890	3.500	104	137	132
Mark Trumbo	586	32	0.808	0.222	5.46%	6.10%	0.895	3.639	110	138	134
Delmon Young	608	18	0.707	0.145	2.96%	3.30%	0.897	4.394	141	139	141
Adam Jones	697	32	0.839	0.218	4.59%	4.90%	0.937	4.449	132	140	142
Alex Rios	640	25	0.850	0.212	3.91%	4.10%	0.953	5.171	138	141	143
A.J. Pierzynski	520	27	0.827	0.223	5.19%	5.40%	0.962	4.130	123	142	139
Adrian Beltre	654	36	0.921	0.240	5.50%	5.50%	1.001	4.364	120	143	140

 

*For ‘The Ghost Who Walks’.