Friday 19 July 2013

Michael Morse: Not an Outfielder But Still Useful


 Michael Morse is an interesting player. He’s a player with some real obvious flaws but a guy who has potential to be very good, or at least useful. He also might be a guy who you could get very cheaply. But to get value out of him you must understand his limitations.
 Morse is a player with big power. He’s got a weird swing but I’m not sure I’ve seen anyone with more opposite field power. Morse has three glaring weaknesses though. Firstly he’s injury prone. He’s got a big fragile body – he spent a lot of time injured last year and has had some problems this year too. Secondly he doesn’t walk much, or at least as much as he should considering his power threat. Using PTW (explained here) he ranks similarly to a 2012 Alfonso Soriano or Josh Hamilton with a career PTW(HR) of 0.692 homers per walk and PTW(ISO) of 3.23 bases per walk. This means to get any decent OBP he needs to hit .300 or near it. He’s also slow, clogging the basepaths and making a liability when put in any fielding position where you need to run.

 As a Washington Nationals fan, I have some great memories of Morse at his best – that 2011 season was awesome. He started the year slow but when Adam LaRoche went down Morse went to first base and exploded, ending up hitting over .300 with 31 homers. But the next year the injury bug hit and LaRoche’s resurgence forced him back into the outfield. The Nats traded him to Seattle and they used him in the outfield. Morse is painful to watch in the outfield – he is slow and it hurts any potential gains from his bat, and after his hot start his bat has cooled down.
 Morse could still be a good target for trade or to get as a cheap free agent next year. But understand that he sucks in the outfield. He should only be played at first base or DH. I think he’s got some potential at first base. His career UZR/150 is -1.5, slightly below average. But given more practice he could even end up above average. Watching him regularly play at first in 2011 he certainly passed the eye test. I think there’s some potential there and he might be got on the cheap – just don’t put him in the outfield. He's not a slam dunk but well worth the risk at the price.

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